The Denver Broncos (14-3) host the New England Patriots (13-4) in the AFC Championship Game at Sports Authority Field on Sunday, with the winner advancing to Super Bowl XLVIII.  Last week in the Divisional Playoffs the Broncos knocked off San Diego 24-17, while the Patriots were the benefactors of four Andrew Luck interceptions in a 43-22 victory over Indianapolis.  This one, of course, matches two quarterback greats, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.  Manning broke Brady’s single season touchdown record of 50 set in 2007 by tossing 55.  Manning has been an absolute monster, throwing for 5,477 yards and 68.3% completions versus just 10 INTs.  Brady, in contrast, has thrown just 25 touchdown passes 1,000+ yards less than his rival counterpart.  Following a bitter double overtime loss to the Baltimore Ravens in last year’s AFC Divisional Playoffs, Manning returned in 2013 with a vengeance by passing for 7 TDs and 462 yards en route to a 49-27 smashing victory over the Ravens in the season opener.  Despite getting out of the blocks to a 24-0 advantage over the Patriots on the scoreboard at halftime, the Broncos fell short in overtime by the score of 34-31 in a late November matchup this past year in Foxborough.  Manning had his statistically worst game of 2013, completing just 19 of 36 passes for 150 yards in that one.  Taking a big lead and feeding off of New England turnovers in the first half, Manning didn’t put the ball in the air as much as he normally does, as his 36 attempts were one of his fewest of the season.  No one writes his wrongs on the field better than Manning, and a repeat subpar performance versus the Patriots appears unlikely here.  In fact, in the six games following that poor 150 yard effort versus New England, Manning has passed for an average of 330.8 yards per game, with three of those averaging 400.  He should be able to have success this time around versus a Patriot pass defense who has had more than their share of struggles recently, as they allowed 317 yards to Luck and the Colts last week, and 286.2 yards per game over their last six.  Four Bronco receivers combined for a whopping 47 touchdowns in the regular season.  Among these are receivers Demaryius Thomas (92 catches for 1,430 yards and 14 TDs), Eric Decker (87 catches for 1,288 yards and 11 TDs), former Patriot Wes Welker (73 catches for 778 yards and 10 TDs) and tight end Julius Thomas (65 catches for 788 yards and 12 TDs).  Julius Thomas missed the first matchup with the Patriots with a knee injury, a key loss for the Broncos in that one.  Any other team in the league would be happy to have a leading receiver with numbers from any one of those four.  In comparison, the Patriots leading receiver, Julian Edelman despite eclipsing the 1,000 yard mark caught just 6 TDs.  Leading the way for the Broncos in the first matchup was running back Knowshon Moreno, who rushed for a career best 224 yards, at a hefty 6.1 yards per carry, and 1 TD.  Over the season Moreno rushed for 1,038 yards and 10 TDs, while also ranking #5 on the team in receiving with 548 yards and 3 TDs.  Giving him a rest from time to time has been another versatile back, Montee Ball, as he had managed to gain 704 yards from scrimmage and 4 TDs.  Over the past month the Bronco defensive numbers have noticeably improved, as over the past five games they’ve allowed just 97.8 yards per game on the ground and 171.2 through the air.  As mentioned above, Patriot QB Tom Brady has struggled this season.  The Patriot offense has gone with a more run oriented offense with back Legarrette Blount.  Over the last three games, the Patriots have passed for just 152.7 yards per game.  Question marks appear in the depth of their receiving corps, as they’ve been hobbled with injuries, with both Aaron Dobson (foot) and Kenbrell Thompkins (hip/concussion) being game time decisions this week.  They’re also without a viable red zone target since the loss of Rob Gronkowski.  In the five games this season with Gronk, the Patriots averaged 34 points, while scoring more than a touchdown less without him (26.4).  In the first matchup between these two teams his presence was key, as he caught 7 passes for 90 yards and 1 TD.  He will be sorely missed in this one.  Gronkowski joined a long list of Patriots on injured reserve, which already included defensive standouts Vince Wolfork, Jerod Mayo, Tommy Kelly and Brandon Spikes.  Manning, his cast of quality receivers and Moreno should be able to put up some yards on the Patriot defense in this one.  Although it’s highly likely Brady and Blount won’t go down without a good fight, the Broncos should emerge with a victory and an invitation to the Big Game.

 

 

 

 

 

The Carolina Panthers (12-4) host the San Francisco 49ers (13-4) on Sunday in the NFC Divisional Playoffs.  With a 21-20 victory over Atlanta a few weeks ago, the Panthers secured both the #2 seed in the NFC and a first round bye.  The week off allows receiver Steve Smith to recover from a knee injury.  Smith is expected to play versus the 49ers.  The Niners are coming off of a hard fought 23-20 victory over Green Bay last week at frigid Lambeau Field in the Wild Card round.  The prior week they won by that identical score over Arizona in another hard fought victory that came down to a Phil Dawson game winning field goal in the closing seconds of regulation.  Two hard fought games back to back and nine consecutive weeks of play since their week off must be taking its toll on them by now.  The Panthers enter this one winners of seven straight home games.  Both of these teams met on November 10 in San Francisco, a game in which the Panthers won, 10-9.  The Panthers outgained the Niners in that one 250-151.  The Panther defense held the Niner offense to just 10 first downs, 52 plays from scrimmage and a paltry average of 2.9 yards per play.  Niner QB Colin Kaepernick completed just 11 passes on 22 attempts for 91 yards and one pick, and was sacked six times.  Applying pressure on the opposing quarterback has been something the Panther defense has been doing all season, as they’ve gotten 60 sacks on the season, most recently sacking Falcon QB Matt Ryan nine times.  Greg Hardy had four on Ryan, and has had a team leading 15 on the season.  Both of these teams are similar, with both offenses relying primarily on the ground game including the efforts of their mobile quarterbacks, and possessing stingy defenses to boot.  QB Cam Newton has led the Panthers to 190.2 yards passing per game.  Newton has passed for 3,379 yards on the season, with 61.7% completions and a decent TD to INT ratio of 24 to 13.  He has also contributed 585 yards and 6 TDs rushing.  In the matchup with the Niners earlier this season, Newton passed for a decent 169 yards, with Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell combining for 111 yards receiving.  Smith, as mentioned above, will be able to give it a go in this one.  His services can only help the Panther effort through the air, and his consistent play is evidenced by his 64 catches, 745 yards and 4 TDs this season.  LaFell has contributed 49 receptions for 627 yards and 5 TDs.  Leading all Panther receivers is tight end Greg Olsen, with 73 catches for 816 yards and 6 TDs.  Ted Ginn, Jr. has added 36 catches for 556 yards and 5 TDs.  Newton should be able to put up another decent effort versus the Niner secondary here.  The Niners have allowed an average of 299 yards per game passing over their last three, 221 on the season.  Led by DeAngelo Williams, Mike Tolbert and Newton, the Panthers have averaged a solid 126.6 yards per game on the ground.  Both Williams and Tolbert are versatile, as they are highly capable at catching the football as well.  Williams has amassed an impressive 1,176 yards from scrimmage with 4 TDs, including 108 yards recently versus the Falcons. Tolbert has contributed 545 yards and 7 TDs.  Versus the Niners earlier in the season the Panthers were able to put up 109 rushing yards.  They should be able to put up another decent effort versus a Niner defense that allowed Eddie Lacy and the Packers to rush for 124 yards last week.  Defensively the Panthers are very stingy, allowing just 86.9 yards per game rushing and 214.3 passing.  They should be able to once again have success in holding the Niner offense as they did in the previous matchup.  Newton should be able to get it done through the air with tight end Olsen and receivers Smith and LaFell and Williams should put together a solid effort on the ground.  Defensively the Panthers should be able to put the pressure on Kaepernick again, leading him to make some bad decisions and ineffectiveness passing.  

 

 

 

 

NFL Playoffs

NFC Wild Card Round

108 GREEN BAY PACKERS plus 3 over San Francisco 49ers